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21 June 2026

El Niño impact on India's monsoon

El Niño is a recurring, high-impact geophysical phenomenon that directly influences the Indian monsoon, agricultural productivity, and food security, making it a standard and frequently tested topic in UPSC Mains.

2 min read Day 1 of 24 2 questions 2 prelims

Notes

  • El Niño is the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • NOAA confirmed an El Niño event with a 63% probability of it becoming a 'super' (very strong) event by northern winter.
  • Intensity classification: Weak (0.5-1°C), Moderate (1-1.5°C), Strong (1.5-2°C), Very Strong (>2°C).
  • Mechanism: Trade winds weaken, causing eastern Pacific warming, which further slackens winds in a feedback loop.
  • Climate change is creating a warmer baseline ocean, increasing the intensity of recent El Niño events.
  • El Niño typically starts in spring, peaks in winter, and weakens by the following spring.
  • Impact on Indian monsoon: Suppressing effect is felt primarily in the middle and later parts of the June-September season.
  • Historical correlation: Since 1950, about 15 of two dozen El Niño years resulted in below-normal monsoons, with 10 being deficient.
  • Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can act as a counter-mechanism; a strong positive IOD can offset Pacific-induced drying, as seen in 1997-98.
  • El Niño redistributes tropical cyclones: suppresses Atlantic hurricanes via vertical wind shear and increases the probability of super typhoons in the Pacific.
  • June rainfall onset is largely governed by local and regional factors rather than El Niño.

Part of a longer story

This is day 1 of 24 in El Nino impact on India's monsoon, which has been running since 21 June 2026. Reading it whole is usually worth more than reading today alone — the exam asks how something developed.

Questions

  1. Explain the mechanism of El Niño and discuss its influence on the Indian Summer Monsoon. How do regional factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole modulate this impact? 150 words
    Attempt this — 150 words in 8 min
    0 / 150 words 8:00
  2. Climate change is altering the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events globally. In the context of the Indian monsoon, analyze how a 'super' El Niño event poses a challenge to food security and fiscal planning in India. 250 words
    Attempt this — 250 words in 11 min
    0 / 250 words 11:00

Prelims

  1. Which of the following best describes the 'very strong' or 'super' El Niño threshold as per the IMD's classification?

  2. Why is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) significant in the context of an El Niño year for India?

Syllabus

Topics

Sources

250words.in · https://250words.in/daily/2026-06-21/el-nin-o-impact-on-india-s-monsoon