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1 August 2026

IMD rainfall forecast

The IMD forecast provides critical context for understanding agricultural productivity, food security, and climate-related risks to the Indian economy, though it is a recurring seasonal update rather than a specific policy or legislative event.

2 min read Day 19 of 24 2 questions 1 prelims

Notes

  • IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for August, expected to be less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
  • Below-normal rainfall is projected for the second half of the southwest monsoon season (August-September).
  • Regional variations: Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in parts of eastern peninsular India, central, eastern, and northeastern India, and northern parts of northwest India.
  • Temperature outlook: Maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most of the country; minimum temperatures likely to be normal to above normal.
  • Climatic drivers: Moderate El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific are expected to strengthen; neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to persist, with a potential positive IOD development in September.
  • July performance: Rainfall was near-normal (101% of the usual amount), helping to offset the June deficit, though distribution remained uneven.
  • July rainfall is critical for agriculture as it is the rainiest month of the four-month monsoon season.

Part of a longer story

This is day 19 of 24 in El Nino impact on India's monsoon, which has been running since 21 June 2026. Reading it whole is usually worth more than reading today alone — the exam asks how something developed.

Questions

  1. Explain the role of climatic phenomena like El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in influencing the southwest monsoon rainfall in India. How do these factors impact agricultural planning and food security? 150 words
    Attempt this — 150 words in 8 min
    0 / 150 words 8:00
  2. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) plays a pivotal role in disaster management and agricultural stability in India. Discuss the challenges in achieving accurate long-range monsoon forecasting and the importance of regional rainfall distribution analysis for sustainable development. 250 words
    Attempt this — 250 words in 11 min
    0 / 250 words 11:00

Prelims

  1. Consider the following statements regarding the southwest monsoon season in India: 1. July is typically the rainiest month of the four-month monsoon season. 2. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is generally associated with a weakening of the Indian monsoon. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

Syllabus

Topics

Sources

250words.in · https://250words.in/daily/2026-08-01/imd-rainfall-forecast