Political demography and Census 2027

Notes

• Political demography examines how population changes (births, deaths, ageing, migration) influence government policy, political power, and international security.
• India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 2.0, below the replacement level, according to NFHS-5.
• Fertility decline is observed across all major religious communities in India, with the gap between them narrowing over time.
• Internal migration is significant, with approximately 45 crore internal migrants recorded in the 2011 Census.
• Regional demographic divergence: Southern states are experiencing faster ageing (Kerala's median age projected at 47 by 2051), while northern states like Uttar Pradesh remain younger (median age projected at 31.7 by 2036).
• Pronatalist policies (financial incentives, parental leave) in countries like Japan, South Korea, Italy, and China have largely failed to reverse fertility declines.
• Demographic shifts pose challenges to federalism, fiscal transfers, and the principle of 'one person, one vote, one value' in the context of electoral representation.
• Population growth in many societies is increasingly driven by increased life expectancy and population momentum rather than high birth rates.