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25 June 2026

Monsoon deficit and El Niño impact

The topic directly addresses critical issues of food security, agricultural resilience, and climate-induced economic risks, which are core themes frequently examined in GS3 and GS2 papers.

1 min read Day 4 of 24 2 questions 1 prelims

Notes

  • Southwest monsoon deficit increased from 35% to 43% nationwide.
  • El Niño (moderate-to-strong) suppresses vertical air movement and weakens moisture-bearing trade winds.
  • Madden-Julian Oscillation is in an unfavourable phase; Indian Ocean Dipole currently provides no buffer.
  • Regional rainfall variance: Northwest India (+5%), Central India (-63%), Northeast (-43%).
  • Reservoir storage is at 30.4% of capacity, higher than in previous El Niño years (25.1%).
  • Agriculture Ministry identified 111 priority districts out of 315 vulnerable ones for irrigation support.
  • Risks to kharif sowing (rice, pulses, oilseeds) and fertilizer availability due to global supply chain tensions.
  • Retail food inflation at 4.2% in April; potential for further increases due to crop deficits.
  • Proposed governance reform: A unified authority to coordinate inter-State water use and cropping patterns, integrating Agriculture, Jal Shakti, and IMD.
  • Short-term weather update: Trough of low pressure in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal expected to revive monsoon over Kerala and coastal Karnataka.

Part of a longer story

This is day 4 of 24 in El Nino impact on India's monsoon, which has been running since 21 June 2026. Reading it whole is usually worth more than reading today alone — the exam asks how something developed.

Questions

  1. The recurring challenge of monsoon deficits in India necessitates a shift from rain-centric to water-centric agricultural planning. Discuss the strategies required to enhance resilience in the rural economy against climate-induced rainfall variability. 150 words
    Attempt this — 150 words in 8 min
    0 / 150 words 8:00
  2. El Niño events pose significant risks to India's food security and macroeconomic stability. In the context of fragmented governance between various ministries and meteorological agencies, evaluate the need for a unified institutional framework to manage water resources and cropping patterns during climate stress. 250 words
    Attempt this — 250 words in 11 min
    0 / 250 words 11:00

Prelims

  1. Which of the following factors are cited as contributing to the current monsoon deficit in India?