Which of the following factors is primarily cited by the IMD as contributing to the weak onset of the southwest monsoon in India?

Excessive low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal

What is the significance of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the context of the Indian monsoon?

It refers to the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.

It has no impact on the intensity of the southwest monsoon.

It always guarantees above-normal rainfall regardless of El Niño.

It is a phenomenon that only occurs during the winter months.

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1 July 2026

IMD monsoon forecast and agricultural impact

The IMD monsoon forecast is a critical annual report that directly impacts India's agricultural output, food security, and economic planning, making it a high-probability topic for direct questions in GS3.

Notes

IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for July, defined as less than 94% of the long-period average.
India recorded a 40% monsoon deficit in June, with 99.5 mm of rainfall, the fifth lowest since 1901.
El Niño conditions identified as a primary driver for the weak monsoon onset and rainfall deficit.
Absence of low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal contributed to poor June rainfall.
Kharif crop sowing area has declined by 22% compared to the previous year due to delayed monsoon.
Water reservoir levels are 25% lower than the previous year, though 5% above the 10-year average.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain neutral, limiting its ability to offset the negative impact of El Niño.
Potential risks include heat stress, reduced hydropower generation, and threats to ecosystem sustainability.
IMD recommends water conservation, efficient resource management, and agricultural contingency planning.

Part of a longer story

This is day 5 of 24 in El Nino impact on India's monsoon, which has been running since 21 June 2026. Reading it whole is usually worth more than reading today alone — the exam asks how something developed.

Questions

Analyze the impact of El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Indian southwest monsoon. How do these climate patterns influence agricultural productivity and water security in India? 150 words

Attempt this — 150 words in 8 min

0 / 150 words 8:00
Discuss the challenges posed by erratic monsoon patterns to India's food security. Suggest institutional and technological measures required for effective agricultural contingency planning and water resource management. 250 words

Attempt this — 250 words in 11 min

0 / 250 words 11:00

Prelims

Which of the following factors is primarily cited by the IMD as contributing to the weak onset of the southwest monsoon in India?

What is the significance of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the context of the Indian monsoon?

Syllabus

Topics

Sources

250words.in · https://250words.in/daily/2026-07-01/imd-monsoon-forecast-and-agricultural-impact